A mile per hour is probably about right, but that's probably per lidar. Waymo has 4 for example, so on a 300mile vehicle that could be 17 miles at 70mph.
Even if you can make it aerodynamic it's still not going to be as aerodynamic as it not being there.
Sunk cost fallacy make sense, but I'd say it's also the fear of the massive lawsuit/upgrade cost if wrong due to his statements.
I think the older Tesla system (HW3) was around 300w, but I think the newer system is more now as they beefed up the compute, but I haven't seen a number on that. The old system is pretty much maxed out though with no room to grow other then making things more efficient vs just more raw power usage.
A lot of the older hardware back then wasn't purpose built for driving and was more repurposed general graphical compute, so it was less efficient hence the 2Kw you were seeing. Tesla built ASICs for the driving computer to bring costs and power usage down.
With the newer purpose built Nvidia stuff I'm sure that has brought the power draw down a lot though, likely relatively close (better or worse I don't know) than Tesla's watt per performance.
edit: clarity